"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis
02.04.2015
Fundamental analysis
We had a multidirectional trend in the Forex market yesterday. At the end of the day the pair EUR/USD has grown amid the energy prices decline and the USA statistics releases. Bears continue to monitor the situation in the oil market that supports the US dollar demand. Even the euro area inflation positive release in March failed to encourage bulls to long with euro.
On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD enjoyed a steady demand during the day amid the UK bond yields increase. The UK GDP final data came out better than the forecasted medians which contributed to the British pound growth against the major competitors. Still the pair GBP/USD had fallen, but increased at the end of the trades.
The Japan fiscal year completion supported the demand for the national currency. The carry trade transactions withdrawal cheered bears to short and even the US consumer confidence positive release from the Conference Board was unable to change the USD/JPY trend.
Technical analysis
Euro (EUR)
General overview
Despite the euro zone inflation positive statistics - the single European currency cannot show any significant increase. The reason for that is the "black gold" bearish sentiment - as long as the Brent crude oil price is not fixed above the level of 57.50 $/barrel we should not expect strong demand for the pair. The US manufacturing sector business activity is of great interest.
Having broken the strong support level of 1.0790 downwards, buyers are trying to correct the price back to the level that had already served as the strong resistance.
The price is finding the first support at 1.0670, the next one is at 1.0550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0790, the next one is at 1.0925.
The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.
Trading recommendations
The approach to the level of 1.0790 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.0670, 1.0550.
Pound (GBP)
General overview
The Center for Macroeconomic Research Markit Economics published the UK industrial production sector release. The indicator rose up to 54.4 from 54.0 in March. Capacity use rates in February allow us to count on the purchasing managers’ positive sentiment prevalence in the manufacturing sector.
The pound has been at the level of 1.4800 for the second week, either breaking through it downwards or upwards. As long as the trend line of 1.4920 is not broken through upwards, the bearish trend potential is still preserved.
The price is finding the first support at 1.4800, the next one is 1.4650. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.4920, the next one is at 1.5015.
There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.
The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations
The level of 1.4920 retest is more likely to lead to the strong price support level of 1.4650 return.
Yen (JPY)
General overview
The dollar revaluation is a negative factor for the manufacturing sector and in this regard it is difficult to expect the ISM strong data publication.
There were the highly volatile news published (the Tankan large manufacturers sentiment index, the Tankan large non-manufacturing companies sentiment index). The news turned out to be positive for the yen to a large extent.
The price is finding the first support at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.
The price is under the Cloud and it is in the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement
and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement.
The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.
Trading recommendations
We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 120.40. We do not exclude the falls to 119.20.
*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.
